Monday, October 31, 2005

Follow up on the ballot proposition money race

There are two broad categories of propositions on the ballot on November 8th. One category is that of reform vs. status quo. For the most part, liberals are opposing reform and Governor Schwarzenegger and his allies are supporting reform. Propositions 73 through 77 fall into this category. The other category is that of business or anti-business propositions. Propositions 78-80 are in this latter category.

What’s been raised so far and what’s the cash on hand for each broad category as of today?

Liberals have amassed $102.3 million in opposition to Props. 73-77 with $7.1 million cash on hand.

The Governor and his allies have raised $36.8 million to support Props. 73-77 with $1.4 million cash on hand.

As for the business initiatives, the forces of socialism and regulation have amassed $67.5 million to support Props. 79 and 80 with $1.6 million cash on hand.

Business has raised $120 million to support Prop. 78 and oppose Props. 79 and 80 with $3.8 million cash on hand.

If you merge these together, assuming that to be pro-business is to be pro-reform and a friend of the Governor while the opposite is true, then the combined funds raised of $326.6 million breaks out like this: $169.8 million against business and reform with $156.8 million for reform and pro-business. Cash on hand: $8.7 million for the liberals and $5.2 million for reform.

Scalito is Sloppy Seconds...

From Drudge--Sloppy seconds” is described in the United Kingdom’s A Dictionary of Slang as:

Noun: “A subsequent indulgence in an activity by a second person involving an exchange of bodily fluids. This may involve the sharing of drink, or more often it applies to a sexual nature. E.g. ‘I’m not having sloppy seconds, I want to shag her first.’”

CBSNEWS Chief White House correspondent John Roberts described the President’s selection of Judge Samuel Alito as “sloppy seconds” during today’s press gaggle with White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan.

John Roberts: “So, Scott, you said that -- or the President said, repeatedly, that Harriet Miers was the best person for the job. So does that mean that Alito is sloppy seconds, or what?”

Scott McClellan: “Not at all, John.”


The problem here isn't Alito, I am not going to even get into a policy debate, the problem is Dubya and a missed political opportunity.

On pure politics, why did he not nominate Judge Janice Rogers Brown? She is a right winger, female, and African American -- she is the SCOTUS candidate that us Democrats were afraid of and Bush didn't even give her a thought.

Tell me why I am wrong all you sexy right wing brainiacs?

California Redistricting Reform Draws $23 Million of Support and Opposition

You can tell much about a measure by its opponents. In California, with its almost yearly crop of ballot propositions, this is especially true.

There are three committees specifically opposed to Prop. 77 and a fourth that’s opposed to four of the initiatives backed by the Governor. Together, they have raised $14.8 million to counter the $8 million raised by the Governor’s allies.

Who are these people and groups opposed to having competitive and fair legislative and congressional districts?

One of “No on 77” committees has raised $7,915,500 so far, the bulk of it, $4,250,000, coming from Hollywood’s Stephen Bing, the wealthy scion of wealthy scions described by Mother Jones magazine as, “A notorious playboy.”

Bernard L. Schwartz also opposes Prop. 77. Schwartz is the former CEO of Loral Space, a company that was fined $20 million by the State Department in 2002 for teaching the Communist Chinese how to build more accurate nuclear missiles. Schwartz gave about $4 million to Democrats and 527s opposed to President Bush over the past two years, so we should be relieved that he only shelled out $25,000 against Prop. 77.

As expected, California’s state Democrat politicians are opposing Prop. 77, with $480,000 chipped in so far.

Trial attorneys are also busy opposing Prop. 77. The Association Of Trial Lawyers Of America wrote a $200,000 check with more than 30 slip and fall firms throwing in another $300,000 for good measure.

Labor unions are also weighing in against Prop. 77, with almost $1 million so far.

Congressional Democrats from all over America are rushing to the fight against Prop. 77 too, with 33 separate checks totaling $151,000 from politicians who must really care about California such as, Murtha of Pennsylvania, Hooley of Oregon, Green, Reyes, Hinojosa and Johnson of Texas, Nadler of New York, Inslee of Washington, Obey of Wisconsin, Clay of Missouri, Tierney of Massachusetts, Berry and Ross of Arkansas, Sabo of Minnesota, Davis of Tennessee, Chandler of Kentucky, Stupak of Michigan, Cramer of Alabama, Schakowsky of Illinois, and Larson of Connecticut.

With this unbroken list of liberals in opposition to Prop. 77, it kind of makes one wonder what the heck California Republican Congressman John Doolittle was thinking when he joined this liberal wrecking crew in opposition to Prop. 77.

Friday, October 28, 2005

Friday Afternoon Delight --Overpaid and Underpaid Staffer

Ok you bored Capitol Staffers (me included yawn!) now taking nominations for the most OVERPAID and the most UNDERPAID capitol staffers. (now don't get too hostile on the overpaids!)

Go to the Capitol Weekly website to check salary info.

I am really interested to see whose names pop up on the underpaid list. I mean, there are so many people are only pulling $20-$30K a year but without them, there offices and members are lost.

So go at it. Make a little Friday Afternoon Delight!

Mi Amor Roger gets it right--again

Mr. Salazar hits the nail on the head with this witty, yet profound response to the GOP's view of Latino attitudes.

The Capitol Morning Report 10.28.05

From The Democratic Majority – With a straight face, a press aide on the Governor’s campaign team told the San Francisco Chronicle that “the campaign’s polling shows a growing number of Latinos are coming over to Schwarzenegger’s side and backing the four initiatives ~Props 74 [teacher tenure], 75 [public employee union dues], 76 [budget-spending cap], and 77 [redistricting] ~ the Governor has billed as his California reform package.” (SF Chronicle, Special Election Blog, Oct. 27, 2005)Someone ought to let the Governor’s communications team know that asking Rosario Marin and Abel Maldonado what they think cannot be considered “polling.” For an independent and immensely more credible perspective, please take the time to look at the newest survey released by the Public Policy Institute of CA ... which shows that 76 percent of Latino voters disapprove of the Governor’s performance in office and a meager 16 percent of Latino voters approve of the Governor’s handling of reforming California government ...Contact: Roger Salazar 916 444 8897

Thursday, October 27, 2005

OC Register or PC Register?

Here's a story that got me fuming: It's harvest time for yule trees. Don't let the title fool you. This article isn't harmless.

Now I love and respect the Orange County Register, especially the editorial page. I read it every day. But when my Register starts calling a CHRISTMAS tree a "holiday" tree, I start to get images of coal swirling in my head. That paper's gone naughty. It's gone politically correct! Christmas is only mentioned in the article in noting the name of the company that supplied the white fir.

I can't remember. Do Jewish families decorate evergreens every year around the winter solstice?

I can remember Congress instituting this "holiday"-speak a couple years ago. Thankfully, the White House hasn't followed suit. Any Sacramento staffers know if the Democrats have made it the "holiday" tree yet? Or have Nunez and Romero eliminated the ritual altogether?

Marvin Lucas Supports Prop 73

As much as I like the hippie lettuce I do have a brain and I have to give the big "A OK" to Prop 73.

This may come as a surprise to some of you, but oh well.

In this society it isn't unreasonable to require a doctor to inform a parent (or legal guardian) if their minor daughter will undergo an abortion. Cops will call your parents if you get arrested, the school calls home if you ditch, hell you can't get a fake tan! (Thanks Joe Nation -- you are still a hottie though)

What is the big deal about a doctor contacting a parent & informing (NOT asking permission mind you) them about their daughter's pending abortion?

Parental notification is not divisive. It is ridiculous and demeaning to women to suggest that teens will then resort to back alley or cross border abortions -- no such doomsday scenario has ever taken place.

Opponents of 73 say, but parents will get angry and punish their daughters.

No shit really? If I get knocked up and I am 16 my parents will freak? I never thought of that? How dumb do they think we are?

Look, kids are kids and teenage pregnancy has been around forever. There will always be extreme cases where a teen can't go to her parent because dear old dad was the one that raped her. Prop 73. has provisions for those cases.

But let's be intellectually honest with ourselves -- parental notification is required for so many things in our society -- parents must at least be notified if a their teen daughter is going under the knife for an abortion.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Blog flogging DeVore: "A fruitless, if amusing, venture"

I truly appreciate the fuss and murmur over whether or not I may or may not run for the State Senate seat that will be vacated with the election of Sen. John Campbell to Congress.

Let me assure all of you loyal readers of this occasionally august blog that, should I make a decision, you will be among the first to know about it.

On the other hand, trying to blog flog me into prematurely announcing my intentions will remain a fruitless, if amusing (to me, anyway), venture.

All the best,

Chuck DeVore
State Assemblyman, 70th District

Re: To DeVore or Not To DeVore

Looks like OCGOP Chair Scott Baugh is saying everyone will have to let him know by Thanksgiving whether or not they'll run for the 35th SD seat. That doesn't mean the news will get out to the press by Thanksgiving, but it will likely get there by then or shortly after. Marvin, you'll be happy to know Chuck has a deadline.

See here: Race for Senate seat begins to take shape.

Diane Harkey announces and YAFer and fellow Dana Point Councilmember Jim Lacy vouches for her: Race for the 35th is officially...a race!

Jubal likes what he sees so far: Diane Harkey Is Sounding Better and Better

What is the minority hiding?

Why is your Republican Chief of Staff using her maiden name on the public disclosure of her salary? The name she uses at work is her married name I believe.

Julie Golinveaux (aka Sauls)
House: Assembly
Office: Republican Caucus
Position: Chief of Staff
Salary: $129,996*
(as of August 2005)

From the Capitol Weekly(thanx boyz!)

Things that just make me say hum! And you say us Democrats are secretive. XO

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Weintraub: Bill Simon Out Of The Treasurer's Race

From Dan Weintraub's blog:

Simon Out Of Treasurer's Race
Bill Simon, the investor and philanthropist who was the Republican nominee against Gray Davis in 2002, has sent a letter to supporters informing them that he won’t be a candidate for state treasurer next year as he had planned.

In the letter, Simon cites the oft-used “personal” reasons for backing out, saying he wants to spend more time with his family. But this is one case where that might actually be true. Simon has confided in friends in recent months that the unanticipated pressures involved in caring for their developmentally disabled 17-year-old son have been all-consuming for him and his wife, Cindy. Still, Simon says he hopes to run again for public office again in the future.
So who does that leave?

Putting your money where your mouth is… A Special Election financial report

The Special Election on November 8th is tremendously important for California. Success means we can reform California and rebuild the Golden State over the next 20 years. Failure… well, failure is not an option.

There are several political groups engaged in the effort to help Governor Schwarzenegger, among them, the various committees formed specifically to pass Propositions 74, 75, 76 and 77, the California Republican Party, and Governor Schwarzenegger’s California Recovery Team. This latter group is the main umbrella entity leading the Governor’s charge for reform.

Significant contributors to the California Recovery Team include Governor Schwarzenegger himself with $4.25 million of his personal wealth and $1 million from his 2006 reelection fund (this contribution underscoring the importance of success on November 8th with success for Schwarzenegger a year from this November), $1.5 million each from Alex Spanos and Jerry Perenchio, and $1 million each from B. Wayne Hughes and William Robinson.

In addition to these million dollar super contributors, some GOP lawmakers have weighed in as well, with Senators Dick Ackerman, Jim Battin, Bob Dutton, and George Runner writing substantial checks from their campaign accounts.

As of October 24th, the 4 of 15 contributing GOP Senators have been joined by 12 of their 32 Republican colleagues in the Assembly: John Benoit, Chuck DeVore, Bill Emmerson, Doug LaMalfa, Tim Leslie, Kevin McCarthy, Keith Richman, Sharon Runner, Van Tran, Mike Villines, Mimi Walters, and Mark Wyland. In addition, Robin Lowe, a candidate to replace Assemblyman Russ Bogh in the 65th, deserves honorable mention for writing a $2,500 check last week from her campaign account.

I certainly hope all of my Republican colleagues are doing all they can to ensure victory on November 8th.

Money in the bank is great. Money out working to put ideals into action is better.

Monday, October 24, 2005

And You Say Our State is Solvent?

The Sacramento Bee reports that the State FTB went after a Walnut Creek secretary for twenty-year old taxes. The State has an analysis that if they reach back TWO DECADES, they can "collect" an additional $13 Million dollars.

Yes, this is clearly a sign that we are a prosperous state. Oh, I am completely convinced now that our economy is on an upswing -- sweeping the corners for every last nickel.

See Article Here

To DeVore or Not to DeVore

Sorry for borrowing Jubal honey you sexy Latino, but I have to post this most recent and interesting exchange between Silence Dogood and Orange County Register political reporting zen master Martin Wisckol from OC Blog.

Martin-

Can we expect The Buzz to carry a powder keg sometime soon? You must have heard something. Do share.

I'm still holding out hope DeVore jumps in the 35th SD.


Posted by: Silence Dogood | October 24, 2005 at 03:35 PM

Mr. Silence:

I hope the Buzz can find a powder keg. I know its many sources are searching high and low. If you learn something, let's meet in the parking structure.


Posted by: Martin Wisckol | October 24, 2005 at 03:43 PM

Prop 74

Should the probationary period for public school teachers be increased from two to five years, and should the process by which school boards can dismiss a permanent certificated employee be modified?

Summary Prepared by the State Attorney General:
Increases probationary period for public school teachers from two to five years. Modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss a teaching employee who receives two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations.

Fiscal Impact from the Legislative Analyst:
Unknown net effect on school districts' costs for teacher compensation, performance evaluations, and other activities. Impact would vary significantly by district and depend largely on future district personnel actions.

Meaning of Voting Yes/No

A YES vote on this measure means:
The probationary period for new teachers would be extended from two to five years, and school districts could dismiss permanent teachers who received two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations using a modified dismissal process.

A NO vote on this measure means:
The probationary period for new teachers would remain two years, and no changes would be made to the dismissal process for permanent teachers.


Summary of Arguments FOR Proposition 74:
Proposition 74 is Real Education Reform--ensuring our children have high-quality teachers. YES on 74 changes tenure eligibility from 2 years to 5 years. YES on 74 rewards good teachers, but weeds out problem teachers. YES on 74--Improve education, ensure our children get the best possible teachers.
Full Text of Argument In Favor, Rebuttal


Summary of Arguments AGAINST Proposition 74:
Prop. 74 won't improve student achievement, punishes hardworking teachers, and ignores our schools' real problems. California's teachers can be and are fired. They're not guaranteed a life-time job, just a hearing before dismissal
--this initiative revokes that right for many. Prop. 74 discourages recruitment of quality teachers we desperately need.
Full Text of Argument Against, Rebuttal

Contact FOR Proposition 74:
Governor Schwarzenegger's California Recovery Team
310 Main Street, Suite 225
Santa Monica, CA 90405
http://Joinarnold.com

Contact AGAINST Proposition 74:
Andrea Landis No on 74, a Coalition of Teachers and School Board Members for Quality Teaching and Learning
1510 J Street, Suite 210
Sacramento, CA 95814
(916) 443-7817
info@noonproposition74.com
http://www.noonproposition74.com

A school district that wants to see your child's closet

I'm posting a link to this great article by Frank Mickadeit because it presents a difficult circumstance ripe for debate.

Here: http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/news/columns/article_729366.php.

THE SITUATION: The school district's reputation is so well regarded, it has a problem with out-of-district parents trying to enroll their children. The problem has gotten so bad, the school district has even hired "residency verification officers" (sounds Orwellian because it is). A woman whose children attend, and have attended, Irvine public schools was accused by a neighbor (probably a concerned parent of IUSD-enrolled students) of not actually living in the home she claims residence. So, the school district sent a residency verification officer over to the house to ... well ... verify residency. The officer was dissatisfied with his ability to verify residency from the front porch, so insisted that he be invited inside the house to inspect the children's closets and bedrooms. The homeowner/parent understandably refused on Fourth Amendment grounds.

I'm with the homeowner/parent on this one, but I'm willing to entertain a debate here. Give me your thoughts.

Central Valley has more in the water than just flouride

Drudge has this story: Young Singers Spread Racist Hate: We Just Want To Stay White!...

These girls are from Bakersfield - not Selma, Bakersfield! Pay especially close attention to the part where the article mentions the Bureau of Livestock Identification allowed the father to register the swastika as a cattle brand. I'm all for free speech, but yikes. The day when neo-Nazis start going about smartly advocating their dangerous message through pop culture is a day to worry.

You don't need the NAACP to tell you that this is wrong. It just is.

I think it's about time public officials got back to what they once did: lead the people. Public officials used to lead people, lead movements, lead perception. What happened? It is an obvious lack of leadership in the Central Valley that has allowed something like this to flourish.

Where's Rusty the Bailiff?

Just saw the reincarnation of the GREAT Judge Joseph Wapner on a "No on 77" campaign commercial this morning.

This ad is sure to get attention if for no other reason than it is Judge Wapner sans Rusty the Bailiff (who I think is actually dead, RIP) or Doug "my hair has never moved" Llewyllen.

It is great to see the good judge out there still active although I question his judgement on this issue -- I also question what he wears under that black robe? Oh what a tease!

Speaking of being a tease, Oh Assemblyman Chucky Pie --- of course I can never attain the level of wisdom the man I am sure will be the next great Assembly Minority Leader, so I didn't even try in my earlier post.

But c'mon, you still are tantilizing and teasing us with your obvious no answer to my earlier question about your future as a possible 35th Senate district candidate.

The official predictions for Nov. 8th

“Marvin Lucas” gave the initiative predictions a whirl, although weakly, in my opinion (What, no margin estimates?! – Come on, Marv!).

So, with the superior knowledge that automatically gets bestowed on every elected Member of the Legislature, I do hereby predict the following:

Prop. 73, yes: 62 to 38
Prop. 74, yes: 55 to 45
Prop. 75, yes: 58 to 42
Prop. 76, yes: 51 to 49
Prop. 77, yes: 53 to 47
Prop. 78, yes: 52 to 48
Prop. 79, no: 48 to 52
Prop. 80, no: 44 to 56

Proposition 77’s passage will have the most immediate and dramatic impact as dozens of campaigning pols will see their races turned upside down as they breathlessly await the results of the new boundaries. I imagine that certain enterprising real estate agents could clean up by specializing in rapid moves for legislators and legislators-in-waiting.

The other impact of the results will be the rejuvenation of Governor Schwarzenegger, bolstering his reelection efforts for 2006.

Friday, October 21, 2005

Karen Hanretty enters the Stutzman/McClellan Battle Royale

Karen Hanretty has pretty charged quote in today's Washington Post, adding further to this growing rift between the Governator and Bushie.

The governor's campaign expressed disappointment that Bush would travel to the state to raise money just 2 1/2 weeks before the special election.

"Unless President Bush is coming to California to hand over a check from the federal government to help us with the financial challenges we face, the visit seems ill-timed," said Karen Hanretty, a spokeswoman for the state Republican Party.

An official connected with the California GOP fundraiser said those who attended also have contributed to Schwarzenegger's campaign coffers.

Schwarzenegger chose not to attend the Thursday night fundraiser or the event at the library where Bush was to lay a wreath in memory of the late ex-president.

During a campaign stop Wednesday in Anaheim, Schwarzenegger addressed why he was passing on the opportunity to sit with Bush.

"We're in high gear right now for our campaign," he said. "So of course, right now, it's all about paying attention to that. So this is why I couldn't really accept the invitation to be part of the ceremony at the Reagan Library out there."

But he also said he was not happy the president chose to visit California so close to the November election to raise money for the RNC. To date, Schwarzenegger has yet to reach his $50 million fundraising goal to promote his ballot initiatives.

"I've met with the president several times in the past. We've worked together, and we have a good working relationship," Schwarzenegger said, adding, "... We would have appreciated it if he had done his fundraising after Nov. 8."

Stop the Press! HUGE Endorsement

According to the Capitol Morning Report today --

The CA Spa and pool Industry Education Council reports that its Board of Governors has endorsed Prop 74 (teacher tenure), 75 (public employee union dues), Prop 76 (spending cap), Prop 77 (redistricting) and Prop 80 (utilities reregulation).

And did you hear the other huge news? Cold water causes "shrinkage."

Thursday, October 20, 2005

What if Jerry Brown didn't exist?

I was just forwarded a letter that Sen Ackerman and Assemblyman McCarthy sent out urging Republicans to support Sen. Chuck Poochigian in an obvious attempt to dissuade Jean-Paul-Pierre-Robert, whatever his name is from running for the GOP nomination as well.

McCarthy and Ackerman wrote --

"We are very disappointed that a transplanted New Yorker has decided to challenge Chuck. Just so there is no question: We view someone who has been absent from our state for nearly a decade… has not been voting in California... and, more to the point, has no record of ever participating in the great causes of the California Republican Party… as destructive and divisive to the unity we need to defeat the likely Democratic nominee, Jerry Brown."

But what if Jerry Brown isn't around to be the GOP kicking post? What do you do if Rocky Delgadillo, a tough on crime, conservative Democrat, Latino, LA City Attorney wins the Democratic nomination for AG? What then?

That my dear Republicans, changes the entire landscape of that election.

XO

Stutzman v. McClellan battle royale

I don't know how many of you saw this on Drudge. I'm posting a link here: Miffed Schwarzenegger to snub Bush amid cash clash...

I think Rob has a height advantage on Scott. But on C-Span Scott looks like a pretty stout little badger. I bet he's got some good ol' fashion toughness. Someone call Don King. This is a fight to promote.

In the final analysis, I'm with Rob. It was really careless of the Bush team to come fundraising in California at this particular time. If he's only coming for the Air Force One exhibit at the Reagan Library, fine. If he's coming to poach, that aint cool.

I hope the deep pockets don't show.

UPDATE: Media guru Jon Fleischman already offered his thoughts on the matter (see: http://flashreport.org/commentary.php).

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

What does the "I think I'm turning Japanese song" really mean

Ok enough hearing about your GOP reputations. Look, as far as I am concerned all the greats had "baggage" -- and if they don't, they usually aren't any good (see Carville, Morris, Rove, Atwater, Kennedy, Unruh, Brown, Gingrich)

Now let's get to predictions--if you disagree, tell me why?

Here goes;

73 - Pass, barely
74 - Fail
75 - Fail barely
76 - Pass
77 - Fail
78 - Fail
79 - Fail
80 - Fail

p.s. All you bitter man hating GOP women (not all of you are) quit using this blog as your personal trash can. Either get a political mind, get a life, or even less likely--get a date.

Toodles XO

Corless's good Karma

I'm posting a link to this story in the Daily Pilot (LA Times Newport edition), because Jeffe got some deserved bad press on this blog in the past. It's good to see OCYRs upholding their mission as a "grassroots political organization." Let's see some more.

Here's the link: Young Republicans oppose school bond.

And the OC Register agrees: Newport-Mesa has its hand out again.

Good work getting in the paper, but next time it's "The Orange County Young Republicans and I" not "The Orange County Young Republicans and myself."

Sex Drugs and Rock N Roll

Leave it to me to talk about a taboo subject LOL.

For a few years now California has been struggling with application of medical use of marijuana. Personally, I think it should be straight up legalized - all marijuana, it is certainly not as unhealthy as cigarette smoking.

But really, when will California with its fierce independent streak actually stand up and strongly assert to the feds that marijuana for medicinal use is ok?

Even in Dem circles this is somewhat controversial with 3/4's of the Dem legislators supporting medical marijuana and 1/4 opposing.

I am curious to know from the GOP blogosphere about your views, and more particularly how your legislators feel about this issue. Is there any GOP legislative support for medicinal marijuana or even all out legalization. Just hypothetics I know, but interesting nonetheless.

Oh Please....

Saddam Pleads Not Guilty to Murder Charges

Can anyone really argue that the world is not a safer place without this guy in power anymore?

BTW, I know we are supposed to be focusing on California Politics, which is usually entertaining enough in itself, but I just wanted to take a little break from the talk on Morrow vs. Wyland and the election and shift everyones attention to the international stage.

Monday, October 17, 2005

Watch out Bill Morrow.....

Looks like we are just about game on kids.... this will be some good sport for all of us Republican politicos down in San Diego and for Marvin who just likes to watch us squable.


Mark Wyland Preparing Run for Congress

Although unannounced, Wyland opens committee with personal contribution

(Escondido) – Although yet to formally announce his candidacy for the open 50th Congressional district, Assemblyman Mark Wyland has opened a congressional committee with a $250,000 personal contribution, and he is busy gathering support from around the district.

“There’s much anticipation over Mark Wyland’s pending announcement,” said Wyland spokesman Tim Clark. “Opening his committee and making a substantial initial contribution is a pretty strong statement. When he enters the race, he’ll certainly do so as the front-runner.”

Assemblyman Wyland has been a popular fixture in San Diego County politics, where he has been a key player in helping the Republican Party build its grass roots infrastructure and increase its voter registration percentages.

A longtime Escondido businessman, Mark Wyland has worked on expanding jobs and economic opportunity, improving education, and reforming government. He has compiled a conservative voting record highlighted by opposition to tax increases and strong support for reduced government spending. Wyland has also been a state-wide leader in trying to stop illegal immigration and its costs to Californians. # # #

The Capitol Weekly - Salary Edition

With as many leg. staffers frequenting these blogs during the doldrums of interim, I am amazed there wasn't one word said about the annual Capitol Weekly listing of all legislative staff salaries.

That edition usually flies of the newsracks with amazing speed as staffers of all stripes huddle around their offices comparing and remarking about the over and underpaid.

While I am not going to blow up anyone's particular salary here (someone else can, usually the criticism centers around the bloated Chief of Staff wages), I am a bit embarrassed at the pay disparity between Democrats and Republicans.

I do feel bad for some of my Reep friends that do the same jobs as their Dem counterparts but make half as much. It is about time for some parity - hell they have to live, eat, and pay taxes too.

I am just curious and amazed at the lack of interest in this year's Leg. Staff salary edition. Oh well, my amazement will continue.

Go SC -- Great game boys. XO

Sunday, October 16, 2005

Dr Phil To Drop Out?

Word over at CaliforniaCampaigns is that Dr. Phil Kurzner plans to drop out of the race for Insurance Commissioner this week. This leaves just 2002’s candidate Gary Mendoza and the billionaire Steve Poizner.

From where I sit, the big winner in this is Poizner. Phil and his supporters were nothing but thorns in Steve’s side. But with them gone, Steve just has Mendoza left to dispose of. And I just cannot wrap my head around the thought of a Dick Riordan-clone exciting the base enough to take on Poizner and his uber bucks.

Runner-up in this is Phil, who brought his name to lots of new people, did a respectable job of putting on what was an uphill battle from the beginning, and likely got some sort of promise out of the Governor for this.

The big loser: Russo, Marsh, Rogers. They are left with another cycle without a candidate, and are becoming less and less relevant. Sal is being replaced by younger, more energetic consultants.

Sad, as Sal is generally a really good guy, and a true movement guy.

Friday, October 14, 2005

A good reason to oppose Prop 79

By now we all have seen at least one of those commercials that pharmaceutical companies keep bank rolling in opposition to Proposition 79. Ethnic scientists, seniors, and children are displayed citing various reasons for voting against the measure and urging Californians to vote for Prop 78 instead.

In efforts to kill 79, PhRMA has raised upwards of $80 million for their campaign efforts. Making it one of the most expensive campaigns in California hstory. While this is a dream come true for political consultants and firms employed by the industry, it makes many of us even more skeptical of the industry.

However, don't let your dislike for big pharma deter you from voting against Prop 79. It really is a bad initiative because it will result in shake-down law suits without any clear indication of wrong doing. This proposition will open the door for personal injury lawyers to sue prescription drug makers and sellers (this includes biotech companies) simply based on vague allegations regarding prices and profit margins. This is exactly the kind of stuff that Prop 64 was passed to prevent, let's not go down this road again.

Satisfying my thirst -- well, at least my political thirst...

Ok you button down GOP boys and undersexed GOP ladies, while I may play for the Democrats I am still interested in what you people are doing. So here are a few questions --

1) Chuck DeVore, are you running for Senate?
2) Mark Wyland, are you running for Congress?
3) Will Mike Carona survive?
4) If Prop 77 passes, who is the most vulnerable, but currently "safe" Republican.

XO -- Marvy

Thursday, October 13, 2005

Do I dare post on KM?

Considering the wrath felt by HNF the last time someone criticized Kim Jung McCarthy it seems a little unwise, but a reader has been teasing this article in the comments sections of the blog so I'll bite.

In his Bakersfield Californian article today titled 'Great hair' only praise McCarthy gets, Vic Pollard covers a humorous flier by YAFers at the CRP convention (yes, the CRP convention that's almost a month old now). Tedious, FREE registration is required in order to read it.

This article was also one of the top headlines on the FlashReport today.

Nativo, You Crafty Guy!

Some anti-cockfighting protesters met with Nativo Lopez last week outisde his Hermandad Mexicana Nacional HQ. They sent me a report on their meet/protest -- you can read it here so I don't have to recreate the whole thing on HNF.

Anyway, this passage stood out for me:
He said his organization is against cockfighting BUT that he doesn't support Nell Soto's SB 156 because he does not think participation in cockfighting should be a felony offense.

When Donna and I stated that laws should be upheld, Nativo Lopez stated, "Some people don't know cockfighting is against the law."

I said, "That's probably because they are in our country illegally." To which Nativo Lopez replied that I was "racial profiling."

Nativo Lopez said funding should be available to educate the public about cockfighting being illegal.
Nativo's bald-faced lie about not supporting cock-fighting aside, the most interesting part of Nativo's response is the last part: funding should be available to educate the public about cockfighting being illegal.

You have to understand the Nativo mentality to get what he is hinting at. Nativo and his various organizations live off government grants -- voter outreach, citizenship education, etc.

If anybody else made that statement, they'd be saying that somebody ought educate these folks that cockfighting's illegal. When Nativo says, he means the government ought to give Nativo money to educate the public that coickfighting is illegal.

I think Nativo may have found another grant-guzzling niche.

Ok take your best shot!

Ok, I know some of you might roundly criticize me for accepting an invite to contribute on FlakNHack - the Mr. Hyde of Hack N Flak - but I did it nevertheless.

Check out my latest first post if the spirit so moves you.

P.S. Will baby, please forgive - if you do I will do that special thing you like! LOL

Special Election Proposition 73

With less than four weeks left before California's Special Election I thought we would start analyzing the Propositions. In the coming weeks I will post basic information and links to both the supporters and opposition of each initiative.

What better place to start then the least controversial of them all Prop 73.

Should the California Constitution be amended to require notification of the parent or legal guardian of an unemancipated, pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion on the minor?

Summary Prepared by the State Attorney General:
Amends California Constitution, defining and prohibiting abortion for unemancipated minor until 48 hours after physician notifies minor's parent/guardian, except in medical emergency or with parental waiver. Mandates reporting requirements. Authorizes monetary damages against physicians for violation.

Arguments Submitted to the Secretary of State

Summary of Arguments FOR Proposition 73:
MORE THAN ONE MILLION CALIFORNIANS' signatures qualified PROPOSITION 73! It will RESTORE Californians' right to counsel and care for their young daughters before-- and after--an abortion. Similar laws are protecting girls in over thirty states. FOR OUR DAUGHTERS' SAFETY, HEALTH, AND PROTECTION, VOTE YES on 73!

Summary of Arguments AGAINST Proposition 73:
Prop. 73 says government can mandate family communication. It can't. Scared, pregnant teenagers don't need a judge--they need a counselor. Vulnerable teenagers who can't talk to their parents may resort to unsafe, illegal abortions. Parents rightly want to know, but keeping teens safe is even more important.

Contact FOR Proposition 73:
YES on 73 / Parents' Right to Know and Child Protection
2555 Rio De Oro Way
Sacramento, CA 95826
Toll-Free (866) 828-8355
http://www.YESon73.net

Contact AGAINST Proposition 73:
Steve Smith
Campaign for Teen Safety
555 Capitol Mall, Suite 510
Sacramento, CA 95814
(916) 669-4802
http://www.NoOnProposition73.org

Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Bloggers are not Journalists

So says Richard Lugar. http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20051012-5421.html

In my opinion, this is an attempt to control the medium, not the content. Should the same content be protected in one medium but not the other?

KB

Anyone doubt Iraq's importance in the War on Terror?

Read this: http://www.dni.gov/letter_in_english.pdf

Here's an explanation of the letter from the Office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence:

Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi
October 11, 2005


ODNI News Release No. 2-05

Today the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a letter between two senior al Qa'ida leaders, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, that was obtained during counterterrorism operations in Iraq. This lengthy document provides a comprehensive view of al Qa'ida's strategy in Iraq and globally.

The letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi is dated July 9, 2005. The contents were released only after assurances that no ongoing intelligence or military operations would be affected by making this document public.

The document has not been edited in any way and is released in its entirety in both the
Arabic and English translated forms. The United States Government has the highest confidence in the letter's authenticity.

Al-Zawahiri's letter offers a strategic vision for al Qa'ida's direction for Iraq and beyond, and portraysal Qa'ida's senior leadership's isolation and dependence.

Among the letter's highlights are discussions indicating:

The centrality of the war in Iraq for the global jihad.

From al Qa'ida's point of view, the war does not end with an American departure.

An acknowledgment of the appeal of democracy to the Iraqis.

The strategic vision of inevitable conflict, with a tacit recognition of current political dynamics in Iraq; with a call by al-Zawahiri for political action equal to military action.

The need to maintain popular support at least until jihadist rule has been established.

Admission that more than half the struggle is taking place "in the battlefield of the media."

The D.C. Disconnect

Perusing the Flashreport (already linked on the BlogRoll) this morning I stumbled upon the disconnected D.C rambling of a beltway boy named Jason Roe. He was lamenting about Prop 77 and how this initiative will destroy the GOP. In the interest of full disclosure, even as a Dem I support Prop 77 cause I think it has strong merits.

He blathers on and on about how Prop 77's passage will throw the California electoral process into deeper abyss (uh, wake up Mr. Roe, obviously the polluted Potomac is clouding your brain and you haven't noticed that CA is ALREADY at the bottom of this abyss) and will lead to the GOP losing congressional seats in California.

My analysis of his Mad Magazine worthy musings is this -

1. If the GOP's control of the HofR rests on California, you have much greater problems than Prop 77.

2. The National GOP is so frightened of ANY competitive races in California becasue of money and manpower that they even grimace at the thought of campaigns in districts that would likely tilt in their favor.

3. The naivete of Mr. Roe and other beltway elitists of BOTH parties is evident when they attempt to opine about the California body politic. If you disagree, give an example from a campaign by EITHER party when the words, "Don't worry, some people from D.C. are coming to resurrect the campaign!", was met with cheers and optimism from us California campaign "neopytes" ?

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

The Buzz on the 35th SD

Martin Wisckol has a good column in today's Orange County Register that talks about election possibilities in West Orange County in the next few months. Two words come to mind: voter fatigue.

I'll echo what I said over on OC Blog a week ago, because Wisckol - again - mentioned his interest in it. "The Delecia Holt swipe is deliciously cruel. Jubal and Martin should be ashamed for snickering." Holt is an African-American woman who ran as a write-in to replace Chris Cox. She claimed she sent 600,000 fliers to residents of the 48th CD. Yes, that's roughly 200,000 more than every voter in the district. Yes, it's sad she spent the money on a write-in campaign for a 17 candidate ballot. Yes, her website was extensively weird. But I still give her points for trying.

"OC Native" at OC Blog suggested Holt would need "3,055,950,000 fliers" to win.

NEXT CHALLENGE: If Campbell were to pay "volunteers" ten dollars an hour to print, fold, insert, stamp and mail all of Delecia Holt's fliers, how much money would he have to spend? (Counting postage)

Rare GOP Intelligence (catch the double-meaning?)

Well it is kind of a novelty that I am the one breaking some GOP news, given the "in the know" GOP bloggers that contribute on Hack N Flak but nevertheless.

My San Diego GOP contacts have informed me about a new CA political star that will manage Sen. Bill Morrow's anticipated run to replace the underfire Rep. Duke Cunningham.

Supposedly, Vartan is the guy's name and kicking ass is his game (they told me his last name but I can neither remember nor spell it). According to my sources, he comes from D.C via Southern California. Most recently as Rep. Buck McKeon's press secretary and served a stint as a grassroots guru on Roy Ashburn's futile run against now Congressman Jim Costa.

Looks like a GOP battle is brewing down in San Diego and Morrow is getting the head start.

I am sure that some of you more connected GOP'ers will provide more info.

The Next Unruh?

Democrat LA City Counncilman/wunderkind Alex Padilla is certainly making all the right moves (however, he is no Tom Cruise!) in his quest to win Sen. Richard Alarcon's soon to be vacated Senate seat. The following was posted by Shane Goldmacher at CA Observer:

On the Rise?
State senate candidate Alex Padilla (and current president of the Los Angeles city council) is taking on a new job this week: the presidency of the League of California Cities. The League, against Padilla's wishes, endorsed Gov. Schwarzenegger's Proposition 76 last Saturday. Padilla will face off in a hotly contested primary next June against Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez in the race to succeed Sen. Richard Alarcon.
posted by Shane Goldmacher at 9:32 AM


As noted by Shane, he must first get through Assemblywoman extraordinaire Cindy Montanez and her unmatched ground operation and support. Cindy will take some hits for not supporting Mayor Antonio in his early campaign (Boxer and Feinstein have already endorsed Padilla), but her support will come from the district where it counts.

XO

Who Does the California Teachers Association Represent?

One of the biggest issues presented during this special election was the supposed war launched on teachers and others by Governor Schwarzenegger. Depending on whose talking points you read either the Governor launched a war against Police Officers, Firefighters, Nurses and Teachers or, the Governor is trying to protect the free speech of the same by limiting the power by which a few are able to speak for the majority.

Now,I am married to a teacher and know many others who do not agree with the actions of the CTA but are very limited in what the can do since they are mandated to join the CTA for collective bargaining issues. I have spoken to many many teachers who believe that both Props 74 and 75 are a good idea.

The following excerpt leads me to ask the following questions: Who does the CTA represent, the teachers or the Democrat party? How much more will the CTA "assess" teachers so that the union bosses can continue to receive a salary?

A sworn affidavit from the California Teachers Association (CTA) reveals the union is heavily financially leveraged and had already spent, as of 9/30/05, every penny of the $50 million it raised to fight Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's reforms. The document also reveals that the union is attempting to secure an additional $40 million line of credit, on top of at least $34 million in existing loans. The document states that failure to obtain this loan would result in "great financial harm" for the union. It also indicates for the first time that the recent $60-a-year assessment forced on members was needed to maintain fiscal solvency.The affidavit was signed by CTA controller Carlos Moreno and was submitted to the US District Court in San Jose as part of a recent lawsuit against the union.

Monday, October 10, 2005

Ask Dave – How Many Signatures?

Reports keep trickling out, like water from a broken spigot… The initiative to qualify the California Border Police isn’t looking so good.

As was first reported at CaliforniaCampaigns, reports have it that GBWA, the firm running the initiative campaign, hasn’t been able to keep up with signature gathering levels that would be required to qualify the initiative.

This shouldn’t be a big shock. The fact of the matter is that today, only paid efforts make the ballot. And CBP isn’t paying signature gatherers.

News reports have put their fundraising efforts at $230,000, which even if put entirely to signature gathering would cover less than 25% of the effort.

They have until December 12 to qualify the initiative (which, by the way, goes through the annual political dead period between Thanksgiving and New Years).

My question is this – Dave, how many signatures do you have?

I encourage others to ask him this as well.

Yours in Freedom,
Anthony Afterwit

Friday, October 07, 2005

Carville: Great advice for tigers of all stripes

Reprinted from the Northwestern Univ. Collegiate:

Carville: Dems need stronger narrative to win
By Elizabeth Gibson
October 07, 2005

The problem with Democrat campaign speeches is “litany,” and they need more narrative like Winnie the Pooh stories, political consultant and pundit James Carville said.

At a speech sponsored by the Northwestern College Democrats Thursday evening, Carville told the audience that Democratic candidates can’t succeed by shouting out to every group in a crowd. Instead candidates should tell stories with the three elements of any good story — setup, conflict and resolution.

“No Kumbayah crap,” Carville said.

College Democrats brought Carville to speak in Cahn auditorium with funds from the $60,000 allotted by the Student Activities Finance Board for the group’s fall speakers.

Jenna Carls, president of College Democrats, said the group decided to bring Carville after polling about 50 students in the spring.

The organization will use the remaining funds to bring another speaker later this quarter, Carls said.

All 1,000 available tickets for the free event were taken by 1:05 p.m. Tuesday, according to the Norris Box Office. Tickets went on sale Sept. 23, the same day as NU’s Activities Fair. During the past few days, College Democrats worked to spread the word by placing more flyers and sending more messages to campus listservs, Carls said.

Carville helped lead Bill Clinton to victory in the 1992 presidential election. He has also worked on several foreign campaigns and co-hosted CNN’s “Crossfire” for more than two years before the network canceled the show in June.

At NU Carville focused on what Democrats need to do to reclaim the presidency. The vocal impressions of President George W. Bush and former presidential candidate John Kerry and Carville’s bouts of shouting in his southern accent had the audience alternatively giggling and freezing in silence.

In addition to breaking away from a laundry list of special interests, Carville said, Democrats need to learn that a candidate who can’t campaign can’t succeed.

“If you’re not competent in campaigns, you don’t have a chance to be competent in government,” he said.

Using Al Gore as an example, Carville said being a smart candidate is not enough.

“It’s actually possible to be wise, right and strong,” he said.

But Carville added that no one in Washington likes anyone who is right too often. Howard Dean’s accurate assessment about the failure of the war in Iraq helped kick him out of the running for president despite his passion, Carville said.

In the same way that intelligence and accuracy can’t stand alone, strength without accuracy is a catastrophe, he said. His example: the Republican administration.

“If we just had mediocracy I’d be the happiest person in the world,” Carville said. “You put political hacks in an important position and there are consequences.”

Weinberg freshman Amy Weiss said the College Democrats achieved their goal of exciting students with Carville’s speech.

“I’ve been a big James Carville fan for several years,” she said. “And I’ve been at school, so I feel so out of touch with current events. I feel I’d be interested in anything he’d talk about.”

But it’s not all about party spirit, Carville said.

Democrats need to bring their causes together and work for them actively, he said. For example, the political consultant suggested taking the specific issue of racial affirmative action and helping those of all races with income-based affirmative action.

If Democrats try to single out every issue, they’re back to litany, Carville said. He also said Democrats just can’t say “no” to causes from gay rights to abortion to the poor.

“Sometimes the problem with being a Democrat is being a Democrat,” he said.

Reach Elizabeth Gibson at e-gibson@northwestern.edu.

Re: Consider the date

It's also the second anniversary of the Recall of Gray Davis, the first victory of the Republican Party in a renewed effort to rid this state of another totalitarian ideology.

Consider the date

Today is the fourth anniversary of the start of the U.S. incursion in Afghanistan to begin to take the fight to the Islamofascist homicidal maniacs who killed nearly three thousand of our kinsmen and women. I remember watching nightvision images of Rangers dropping out of the back of a C-130 and thinking, "go get those bastards." Four years later, the War on Terror continues and our American servicemen and women have done a remarkable job protecting the homeland from attack. If you don't thank them every day, at least thank them today for embarking on a worldwide effort to rid the world of a murderous totalitarian ideology.

Consider the source

While I agree with much of Marvin's most recent post, I beg to differ on the national news comment regarding Nativo.

In the last three months the guy has been in the new york sun, the American Spectator, Business Mexico, Yahoo News, Hispanic Business, Scripps, the Daily Standard, Voices magazine, to name just a few. Some of the articles are pro-Nativo, which means the MSM still considers him a credible source when writing a story.

Additionally, look at the official voter information guide, Nativo has undeserved clout enough to warrant being listed in the Prop 77 ballot argument. I'll even give him credit for showing up at the state GOP convention to appear bipartisan..

Despite that appearance, he's been an influencial Democrat operative for quite some time. His voter registration operations have been investigated as have several other activities. I can understand why Marvin would want us to look the way and stop bringing him up, but consider the source. She doesn't exactly have the Republican's best interest at heart.

Thursday, October 06, 2005

Juvenile Wanna-be Political Hacks

Good job with the "new and improved" blog Will! I say that with a great deal of sarcasm.

Darling, this is getting a idiotic, insane and sad. I think someone commented that you capitol staffers or wanna be young politicos throw stones at anyone that has had any type of success. They have a point.

The real pros, both Dem and Rep, rountinely take you home, slap you silly, and then kick you out the door without being kissed. Face it, you are jealous and admitting that you have a problem is the first step to recovery.

Many of the so called new contributors on this blog have attributes similar to Legislative Fellows or as some of my Republican friends speculate, disaffected Orange County Leg. Staffers. Who really knows or cares.

I don't know what motivates you, but as a Democrat I love to see the fighting. This is what helps us win - if you don't think so just contrast the WILDLY SUCCESSFUL Ted Lieu campaign (can you say 59%) versus your recent Campbell "victory" in an area where your party apparatus outspent the 3 other legit candidates 5 to 1. That is sad. (and just in case some of you want to blame that on the Gilliard guy, think again, your troops were undisciplined and divided even after your entire Party endorsed Sen. Campbell. The problem isn't any consultant - the problem goes so much deeper)

So in conclusion boys and girls, have fun giving eachother wedgies and making fart noises when the teacher isn't looking, and the Democrats will continue to have a freakin' blast kicking your ass.

Good luck! XO

GBWA is on top of things

I decided to do a little slumming around the Internet, and gandered over to the "BearElephant Pub" -- You know, Dave Gilliard's blog? http://www.bearelephant.com/

Well, it appears that they are so organized, and so up to speed, that they FORGOT to pay for their domain name!! It expired on 10/06/05.

I think I'm gonna go over to GoDaddy.com and see if I can register it...


UPDATE: The "whois" indicates that the new expiration date is 9/23/2006 -- but it expired on 9/23/2005 -- and it was updated on 10/04/2005 -- so its just that they can't do things on time.....

STOP THE OBSESSION!

Jubal, I love ya - the OC Blog is great. BUT WHO THE HELL GIVES A CONFEDERATE NICKEL FOR NATIVO LOPEZ?

You are obsessed with Nativo.

The guy gets ZERO statewide press outside of your posts and blogs, his organization is virtually none existent and his political clout is on par with Kathleen Brown.

What gives?

I know this is more of a comment than a post but I am at my tit..I mean WITS end!

I also want to know why you crazy Republicans behind the Orange curtain think you can beat Tom Umberg? - and don't lecture me on the affair thing, I have read your comments on some of your GOP legislators. Umberg is unbeatable, save your money.

Haynes asked to Respond

I have emailed Ray Haynes and his consultant asking them to respond to the allegations first reported on HNF.

I would also invited Gina Zari to send me an email at hacknflak@hotmail.com to express her side of the story.

I will post any response unedited. I will not however, hold my breathe waiting.

There are two questions:

1. Ray, what is your current marital status, Married, Single, Separated or Divorced?

2. Please explain the relationship between you and Mimi Walters COS Gina Zari.

Nativo Lopez: The Protester Gets Protested

I posted this on OC Blog. It just strikes me as funny that a professional protester/grievance-monger like Nativo Lopez is going to be picketed by anti-cockfighting activists. It beautifully illustrates how ridiculous his career has become.

Very public tough love from Gilchrist consultant

Chuck Muth knows how to get to his man with this piece: Is Minuteman’s 15 Minutes Up? I tip my bonnet to the Powder Blue Report for the find.

Gilchrist is the kind of hardnosed grassroots guy who needs to here this stuff from his supporters. He won't listen to the seasoned, paid professionals. Muth is probably hoping that by making his consultation open to the public, the Regular Joes and Joannes will echo the sentiments back to the Minuteman leader.

Shawn Steel Compares Ah-nuld's Situation To Cortes'

Let's just hope The Governator does to the government unions what Cortes did to the Aztec Empire.

It's a good op-ed. Read it. It ran in the Washington Times and the Orange County Register (no link yet).

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Chuck, are you running for SD 35?

Ok I know this is a GOP blog (primarily) so I will try to keep this question at a primary grade level and topical(Joking! You humourless dolts that may actually be baited into responding to that, don't bother.)

Assemblyman DeVore, are you going to run for Senate District 35?

(Philosophically, Harman is a much more tolerable Republican, but he comes from the same silver spoon elitist class that claims Dogood "loser" Campbell. Chuck seems a bit more blue collar which is always a plus in my book. I'd still be voting Dem though!)

Parrish Smacks Haynes Upside the Head

In political terms what Claude Parrish has just done to Ray Haynes can only be characterized as a big slap in the face. Hack N Flak has been able to confirm that Claude Parish, sitting BOE member and technically neutral in the race to replace him after he is termed-out, has appointed Michelle Steele, candidate to replace him, as his Chief Deputy.

What does this mean?

Well first off if Claude was to vacate his position before the end of his term, precedent would dictate that his Deputy would fill the seat until the next election. More importantly however, Steele can now have a ballot designation to rival that of her opponent Ray Haynes. Instead of a sitting state Assemblyman against a whatever, it is now BOE Chief Deputy.

Haynes has got to be pissed over this.

Please keep your Gina comments to a minimum and lets talk about the implications of this move by Parish.

October 4th Winners & Losers

Jubal has his here: http://www.ocblog.net/ocblog/2005/10/jubals_48th_cd_.html

I have mine here.

WINNERS

The 320,000+ 48th CD voters who didn't show up at the polls yesterday: you now have another opportunity to exercise your civil right to vote who goes to Washington in December

Legal Immigration Lobby: you made it the focus of this election and John Campbell is still State Senator because of it

Dick Ackerman: you can safely say to all your supporters you would have made a better showing

Harvey Englander: you made a boatload off of convincing Marilyn Brewer she had a chance in this district and you grabbed the Democrat votes you always sought

Orange County/48th CD: you can safely say you are the antithesis of the Bay Area, for here Democrats are being beaten by minor party candidates

Jim Gilchrist: you were outspent more than ten to one and were only beaten three to one, you forced a five-year incumbent millionare car salesman into a runoff, bumbled the Minuteman ballot title, worked with an ad hoc crackpot campaign staff, and assuming you garnered all of the AIP votes in the district you still peeled off thousands of Republican votes, all of this while your name was buried in a ballot of seventeen, without a serious mail campaign and the infusion of personal wealth

Bloggers: you have so far made this one of the most exciting years in recent political history and gotten press while doing so

Don Udall: awesome sign placement

Orange County Registrar of Voters: I am generously giving you a win here, you had all the ballots counted before midnight, good work

Orange County Taxman John Moorlach: Tom Harman will be too broke to run against you for Supervisor after he loses his postponed campaign to replace State Senator Campbell

Orange County Republican Central Committee (70th District): yesterday's results show that Marilyn Brewer's popularity has dropped considerably since she left the Assembly and she won't be joining your ranks in the near future (March 7, 2000: http://www.ocgov.com/election/Live/E50/frame50.htm and March 2, 2004: http://www.ocgov.com/election/Live/e12/frameset.htm) for she can't get the votes

Partygoers at Joe's Garage: most likely you'll see each other again in two months (this may or may not be a good thing)

LOSERS

Dave Gilliard: you outspent all of your opponents, ran the ONLY absentee chase program in an election that had nearly 60% of the votes cast absentee, had the national and state and county Republican Parties endorsements and manpower behind you, bussed people to the polls and still couldn't eek out 50%+1 in one of the most Republican Congressional Districts in the country (66% for Cox in the last election, 46% for Campbell)

John Campbell: ditto, and you did this while deftly dodging debates, not positioning yourself on any issue, and proving yourself unresponsive to your friends' inquiries

Steve Young and the California Democrat Party: you couldn't beat Jim Gilchrist and the AIP?

"Washington scum" who flew out to campaign: jet lagged and lost, you really proved your worth, now time to get back to pork barrel politics

Darrel Issa and the California Republican Party Establishment: dispite your intimidation and threats, Republicans still voted for Jim Gilchrist, Darrel, it's your turn to cry now

Tom Harman: you have to postpone your ambitions for another couple months

Jubal: respectfully, your man didn't get what he wanted last night

Orange County: you get to pay for another election on top of your new and increased pension obligations, yip-pie

CTA: after all the IEs for Brewer, you still couldn't even get her elected to her local central committee

BIGGEST LOSER:

Marilyn Brewer: you know why

QUESTION ON THE 48TH

How many votes would Jim Gilchrist have received if he were a registered Republican?

First Course of Business

Before we all get to wrapped up in the after election spin from the CD-48, I want to welcome back my favorite blogger from the left, MARVIN LUCAS. For those of you new to HNF, "MARVIN" is a democrat operative that was one of, if not the, best blogger from the old HNF. It took many long weeks of wooing and pleading, but Marvin has come home.

WELCOME BACK MS. MARVIN.

Congressman John Campbell

OK, so he won't be sworn in until December 7 (Pearl Harbor Day). But the run-off is a formality.

Here's the final tally for today's primary (pending late absentees). I only included the top five vote getters (you can get the results for all 17 candidates here):

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36,640 46.0%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 13,272 16.7%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11,490 14.4%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 7,110 8.9%
JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 3,242 4.1%

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

First results from the 48th

Sen. Campbell and the O.C. Republican Party put a huge push into absentees and GOTV. Now, we will see if the Senator's lead holds true so a runoff can be avoided. Look at the first returns and see how his percentage holds -- it may (underline may) be a long night to see if another eight weeks are needed.

Perhaps the biggest surprise to some is how poorly former Assemblymember Brewer did, what, with all the money, and IEs from those liberal groups such as the CTA Union.

Vote Count Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 24902 51.9%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 7242 15.1%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 4828 10.1%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 3275 6.8%
JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 2184 4.6%
BEA FOSTER (DEM) 1845 3.8%
DON UDALL (REP) 1027 2.1%
JOHN KELLY (REP) 630 1.3%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 471 1.0%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 466 1.0%
DAVID R. CROUCH (REP) 245 0.5%
SCOTT MACCABE (REP) 241 0.5%
MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP) 232 0.5%
TOM PALLOW (DEM) 184 0.4%
GUY E. MAILLY (REP) 86 0.2%
MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 61 0.1%
EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP) 61 0.1%

Mike Murphy On New KABC-TV Poll

Schwarzenegger uber-strategist Mike Murphy blogged an intriguing, well-written post on the Join Arnold Blog about the new KABC/KPIX poll done by Survey USA. While maintaining his general skepticism about media polls, Murphy explains why he has come to view Survey USA in a positive light during the last three years.

He also includes a PDF link compariong the accuracy of Survey USA polls vis-a-vis Field, PPIC and LAT when they polled at the same time. It turns out Survey USA has a greater accuracy rate than the three old maids of California polling.

Rob Stutzman has his take, as well.

H/T to FlashReport Blog.

I am back in black

To quote the great old AC/DC song, I am back in black and ready to take the blogosphere by storm.

I am traveling right now and going to be enjoying the nice taverns of Santa Barbara, but I will be tracking the craziness in Orange County tonight from my friend's casa. (Jubal, how about a live remote from election central? Where is it? Sutton Place?)

Next I would like to comment on the "Who's hot?" lunacy that was going on here: I am the hottest, with the biggest rack, best ass yadda yadda and all you ladies and gents are jealous. So there, it is settled. No more talk about it cause the case is closed.

Lastly I would like to commend Phil "the sleaze" Angelides (I am a Westly girl) for his Oscar winning performance in the the movie, "Gray Davis II - Now I am a geeky Greek guy"
Ciao babies!

You guess Udall

Okay you seasoned politicos, I've got a contest for you. This one only requires you to guess one number.

Last week, Dr. Don Udall pulled out of the 48th CD special election and endorsed John Campbell. But Udall's signs are all over the district, all over the place. I think Udall unquestionably had the BEST sign placement program in the election, hands down. That's all he had really: signs. He didn't get the earned media of Campbell, Brewer, Gilchrist, and Young. He didn't have any advertisements that I saw. Just signs.

CONTEST QUESTION: What percentage of the vote will Don Udall grab in the 48th Congressional District special election today?

Spam

HNF has been hit with spam every time a new post is published. In order to prevent this from happening in the future blogspot, our host, has given us the option of having a word verification added to our comment section. This is just one additional step that will take maybe 5 seconds to accomplish, but will prevent people from spam us with nonsense.

Will

Gilchrist v. Campbell On John & Ken -- Another View

I enjoyed reading Silence Dogood's take on last night's Campbell/Gilchrist debate. Silence is a Gilchrist-leaner, but a I greatly respect his/her judgment and ability to maintain objectivity (although I think his bias toward Gilchrist still managed to seeped in somewhat).

Here's my take on the debate, and since I am a strong Campbell supporter, I'm sure some of that bleeds through.

Campbell effectively rebutted charges that he's soft on illegal immigration by confronting his past bad votes, and pointing out his role in the repeal of the illegal alien drivers license bill, and qualifying the California Border Police initiative. I think most 48th CD voters who heard the debate, hadn't already voted absentee and were planning on voting today would accept the argument that a couple of old, bad votes do not obliterate what is a very good, conservative record on illegal immigration.

I heard Gilchrist talk about why he's an AIP. He came off as halting and sounded like a guy trying to get his story straight. He failed to directly answer why he was in the AIP and soon was floundering and blaming Arnold and state election law for the consequences of his decision to be a registered member of the American Independent Party. Luckily for Gilchrist, J & K stepped in to rescue him by getting him back on the topic of illegal immigration -- at which point Gilchrist became more animated, confident and articulate. At least Campbell dealt directly with his in-state tuition for illegal immigration vote. One Gilchrist strength is he seems like a straight-shooter, so when he waffles and spins as he did when answering the AIP question, it makes the spinning and waffling more pronounced.

When J & K asked Campbell is he was going to be a "David Dreier." Campbell responded in an informed, articulate manner, and didn't allow himself to be baited by the boorish Gilchrist supporters.

Conclusion: Gilchrist didn't hurt himself, and probably helped himself a little bit. Campbell didn't didn't hurt himself, either, and probably helped himself as well. He effectively refuted the "soft on illegal immigration" charges, and sounded like an informed, experienced elected official who can immediately start functioning as an effective Congressman. Gilchrist came off as Howard Beal, with a touch of budding egomania ("I am a catalyst for change" and "I am the consequence of a Republic that has been vicitmized...")

The behavior of Gilchrist supporters jeering, booing and laughing in the background throughout the debate comes off badly and only elicits listener sympathy for Campbell. Gilchrist would have scored some points for poise and maturity by asking his supporters to be quiet and respectful of everyone's right to speak out because they as supporters of Gilchrist and the Minuteman Movement they know what it is like to be jeered, booed and hooted down.

Soft or undecided 48th voters listening to last night's debate would have heard two candidates who sounded tough on illegal immigration, but most would come away thinking Campbell -- not Gilchrist -- sounds like a congressman. And that despite debate moderators (J & K) who held Gilchrist's hands throughout the forum.

In the end however, the timing of this debate means it will have minimal impact on the outcome of today's election.

OC's First Blogged Election

I have a column in the Orange County Register today on the rise of the Orange County blogosphere and how it is impacting local politics in general and the 48th CD special election in particular.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Election Day.... Again

Another week has gone by here in beautiful California and guess what, tomorrow is election day....AGAIN!

So without further ado, it is time to make your predictions for the CD-48 Special Election. Does John Campbell reach the Golden Hoop and get 50%+1 does Marilyn Brewer pull her second miracle and top Mr. Campbell. What does Jim Gilchrist candidacy do to the election, does he pull enough Reps off Campbell to give Brewer a shot?

I think the only thing that we can agree on is that Steve Young will not be the top vote getter!

Gilchrist v. Campbell on John & Ken

For those who weren't already aware. The link to KFI's streaming audio of the debate is in the post's title. They haven't gotten to the main event. They have gone through the CA Border Patrol Initiative, Dennis Mountjoy, Mimi Walters, then the less known candidates (John Kelly-R, Steve Young-D and others), soon to get to the debate. The crowd is pumped up that's for sure. Loud audiences support Campbell and Gilchrist.

UPDATE 1: One of the guys just trashed the "Washington scum" who have taken up seats in the conference hall the show rented for the occasion at the Ayres Hotel and have been chanting "Campbell!" They are obviously annoyed that regular voters from the district have been denied an opportunity to see the debate. It's just getting good.

UPDATE 2: QUOTE OF THE CENTURY: John Campbell states, "We do not have driver's licenses for illegal immigrants because of me. I don't like saying that, but it's true."

UPDATE 3: ANOTHER: John Campbell states, "If you look at my five years in the legislature, I haven't sucked up to anybody." I can hear Schwarzenegger's boot kicking down the door right now.

1st COMMERCIAL BREAK: Campbell is obviously shaken up by the line of questioning and the presence of so many people who oppose his candidacy. Gilchrist has so far been flying high with not much of an inquisition or air time.

UPDATE 4: Gilchrist states, "I am a Reagan Republican. The law in the State of California says someone can't change their registration one year prior to an election ... I was forced to run as an American Independent ... All of the Republicans in Congress who I met support me, not publicly ... I am running against the Republican Establishment ... We are a benevolent society, but we're also a rational society."

2nd COMMERCIAL BREAK: Nothing's changed. The segment wasn't long enough. One question went to Gilchrist and that was it.

UPDATE 5: J & K hit Campbell with the David March question. Campbell says that situation is "flat wrong." J & K follow up with how do we know you're going to do something about it? Campell responds with, "Vote for me tomorrow and watch."

Gilchrist responds to the March question with a short memorized biography of David March. Says that would be one of his first missions to get the State Department to prosecute March's killers.

J & K hit Campbell with Republicans runaway spending. Campbell talks of his deficit prevention act in California. Seems to pledge a hard line on government spending, demanding "external discipline."

Gilchrist cites Bear Stearns assessment on the cost of illegal immigrants on the economy and the budget. Again, mentions his support from Tom Tancredo.

UPDATE 6: J & K ask Campbell why the people shouldn't vote for a "bomb thrower," because it seems the country's situation demands a bomb thrower. Campbell retorts, "You can throw bombs and you can blow things up, or you can get stuff done. I get stuff done." Gets overwhelming boos to this. J & K go for the one-two punch mentioning that Campbell's an easy going guy who seems approachable, but that he's also a corporate guy who seems to be part of the current problem, just like Chris Cox (who J & K obviously have had issues with, because they feel he didn't do enough about the immigration issue while Chair of the Homeland Security Committee).

Gilchrist rebuts with, "John [Campbell], so someone who wants to enforce the laws of the United States and protect your kids is a bomb thrower?"

Campbell, "I didn't call you that. John [host], you called him that."

Gilchrist says, "I'm not a bomb thrower. I'm a catalyst for change. I'm the consequence of Republicans and Democrats who have ignored the rule of law for the past 40 years."

3rd COMMERCIAL BREAK: I know people will point out my predisposition towards Gilchrist going into the debate, but at this point I think it's unquestionable that Gilchrist is the one staying on message. He's really done an amazing job keeping the debate centered around illegal immigration. This is where he wins.

UPDATE 7: J & K mention a lot of money going to Iraq War and overseas to other countries, when are we going to start caring for the American people? Campbell says, "I'm someone who can grab the President's attention on the issue of illegal immigration and government spending." He purposefully mentions the death tax, probably as a small swipe at the oft-misquoted Register piece with Gilchrist's stance on it.

Gilchrist says, "I'm taking the exact same position as my opponent. However, I don't have to prove anything to anybody, I've already proven it."

FINAL UPDATE: It's clear J & K put more of the heat on Campbell than Gilchrist. Gilliard's probably kicking himself for putting his candidate up to this debate. It really didn't do anything for Campbell. Campbell didn't get much of a chance to discuss his other issues. All the listeners came away with were Gilchrist's confident soundbites on illegal immigration. Campbell sounded timid.

Let's try this again

Ok children I know that with your bosses out of town you do not have anything to do but anonymously attack each other on HNF. This will not be tolerated. If I had been available I would have deleted those posts immediately. Unfortunately, once one of you starts, others take it way to far.

Please, please do not turn this site into a site that must contain an 18 and over disclaimer. If you want to discuss those type of issues start your own blog, it is real easy. I will even link it for those staffers that enjoy that sort of stuff.

Thank you,

Will

FlashReport goes global

Congratulations to Jon Fleischman for launching the long-awaited FlashReport website! It looks great. An added bonus is that Hack n Flak has been added to the Blog Roll of sites Fleischman believes are necessary reading on the California political environment. It is an honor to be included with the likes of John Fund, Steve Greenhut, Peggy Noonan, Dennis Prager, Larry Elder, Thomas Sowell, Dan Weintraub, and Walter Williams.

The FlashReport has been around since April 2001 as simply a massive e-newsletter. The list of recipients is no doubt long and cumbersome for Fleischman to maintain, so a website should allow him to spend more time on searching for news you can use instead of on the distribution process. And while there have been many attempts to compete with the FlashReport (Steve Frank's CA Political News and Views and Tom Del Beccaro's Political Vanguard immediately come to mind), there are no substitutes.

Here's the press release about the launch:

FLASHREPORT.ORG WEBSITE ON CALIFORNIA POLITICS LAUNCHES TODAY!TEN WELL REGARDED POLITICAL OBSERVERS WILL PARTICIPATE AS AUTHORS ON THE FLASHREPORT WEBLOG; MUCH MORE….

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Jon Fleischman
jon@flashreport.org

(October 3, 2005 – California)

Today marks the launch of a new web-portal on California politics, www.flashreport.org, which will be the easiest way for those following politics in the Golden State to get their fill of the latest news and insights.

For the past four years, publisher Jon Fleischman has been producing the FlashReport in an e-newsletter format which has gone out each day to thousands involved or interested in California politics.

“The new FlashReport.org website is designed to be a one-stop portal for anyone interesting in California politics, said site publisher Jon Fleischman, a former Executive Director of the California Republican Party. “Every day the site will be updated with links to the top political news stories, there will be insightful commentary and analysis, as well as access to a tremendous number of valuable resources.”

From the FlashReport homepage, readers will be able to navigate with one-click of their mouse to the news, editorial and editorial cartoon pages of California’s major papers, read the latest from the state’s significant political columnists, or just to dozens of California political websites, weblogs and other resources.

A significant new feature of the FlashReport is the FlashReport Weblog on California Politics where ten political veterans will continually keep FlashReport readers up to date on the latest California news out of Washington, D.C., the State Capitol, and regionally from the Bay Area, Sacramento Area, Central Valley, Inland Empire, Los Angeles Area, Orange and San Diego counties. The weblog authors are briefly profiled on the second page. More extensive biographies are available online.

“You’ll want to keep checking back to the site,” said Dan Schnur, the weblog’s State Capitol Correspondent. “The group of contributors that Jon has assembled will bring a lot of information and insight to anyone following California politics.”

INTRODUCING THE FLASHREPORT WEBLOG

The most significant new feature of the FlashReport.org website is the addition of the FR Weblog on California Politics. Here, ten seasoned political veterans from all around the Golden State and Washington, D.C., will be posting their latest insights on politics in their area and around the state.

Authors on the FR Weblog include:

Mike Der Manouel, Jr, of Fresno, is the President of the Lincoln Club of Fresno County. A political veteran, he is often a guest radio talk show host, and a regular newspaper columnist. He is also President of an insurance company. He served many years on the State GOP Board of Directors.

Duane Dichiara, of San Diego, has over 10 years of experience electing candidates to office. His campaign history includes successful races for competitive Congressional, State Senate, State Assembly, County Supervisor, City Council and Judicial seats.

Jon Fleischman, of Orange County, has been the Publisher of the FlashReport since mid-2001. He was formerly Executive Director of the California Republican Party. His campaign history includes statewide, Congressional, legislative, and city council races.

Joe Justin, of Sacramento, is the owner of the Justin Company. With 18 years of experience, he has consulted for campaigns for members of Congress and State Legislatures across America. He has worked on some the highest profile campaigns in the country, including the defeat of the former Speaker of the House Tom Foley.

Brad Mitzelfelt, of the Inland Empire, serves as Chief of Staff to San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus. Brad has 20 years of public affairs experience – six of them as an award-winning Marine Corps combat correspondent. He has been in state and local politics and government since 1992.

Adam D. Probolsky, of Orange County, is president of Probolsky Research, an opinion research firm specializing in politics and public policy. He has been a strategic advisor to campaigns from judge and city council to U. S. Congress and state legislator. His firm specializes in advising local government agencies on issues of taxation, annexation, redevelopment and development.

Jason C. Roe, of Washington, D.C., is Chief of Staff to Congressman Tom Feeney. He served as Chief of Staff to former Under-Secretary of Commerce James Rogan. Formerly he also was the Executive Director of the San Diego County Republican Party.

Dan Schnur, of Sacramento, is one of California’s leading Republican political and media strategists, whose record includes work on four presidential and three gubernatorial campaigns, as well as extensive experience on behalf of a variety of ballot initiatives and policy reform efforts.

Mike Spence, of Los Angeles County, is President if the California Republican Assembly, as well as Vice President of the National Federation of Republican Assemblies. He is an elected member of the West Covina School Board. He has served as a consultant on many campaigns.

Bill Whalen, of Palo Alto, is a fellow with the Hoover Institution. For five years he was Chief Speechwriter for former Governor Pete Wilson. He has served as a media consultant for many candidates, and is an accomplished and well-published writer

# # #

While the list of FlashReport bloggers is distinguished, it seems to me the fact that they have revealed their identities precludes them from saying really damning things about their own party and/or candidates, even when it's necessary that something be said. These guys aren't full time opinion columnists like the Cornerites at National Review. They are all political operatives, meaning they risk their employment. Nonetheless, I will read the FlashReport blog religiously, as everyone else should, because these are learned, experienced, political men whom I respect.

Good luck Jon. And once again, congratulations.

Sunday, October 02, 2005

Hack N Flak in the news

The Sac Bee’s Kevin Yamamura wrote a piece about the blogosphere entitled
“In state races, it's the year of the blog” that mentions Hack N Flak and your humble contributor.

From the piece:

DeVore, R-Irvine, posts to both his personal campaign blog and the opinion sites Hack N Flak and OC Blog. He said he uses his blog to reach his base of supporters but posts to the opinion blogs to influence a wider audience.

AND

DeVore said Capitol workers have mixed opinions on whether blogging is a benefit or liability.

"Some people believe that if Abraham Lincoln or Alexander Hamilton were still around today, they would be blogging," DeVore said. "But the other half of staffers are terrified because they look at the permanency of what you write and ask, what if this guy writes something that gets ridiculed in the mainstream media? Or what if he writes something that could be used in a hit piece?"


Bottom line advice to my colleagues: come on in, the water’s fine! But don’t ask your staff to write for you, it will slow your reaction time and make your whole blogging process too cumbersome to be worthwhile.