Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Umberg Needs Help---Maybe

I posted the commentary below on the HNF alter ego blog Flak N Hack, but I thought it also germane to this discussion group. Check it out ----

Set to run in a district that only gives us a 3-4pt voter registration edge and freshly off a public scandal with his wife (I am playing devil's advocate here, I am totally cool with his handling of that issue), Assemblyman Tom Umberg could face a real challenge from Reeps looking to reclaim their once proud domination of the Orange Empire.

Word from the GOP has it that therr are really only two serious contenders -- 1) Termed out moderate Reep Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher and 2) Right wing, first termer Assemblyman Van Tran.

I know what many of you might say---"there is no way either of those rookies beat Umberg!" However, let me just suggest the possibility that ---

A) Arnold regains his popularity and has a strong top of ticket for the Reeps along with their golden boy Tom McClintock for Lieutenant Gov.

B) Democrats nominate developer/tycoon Phil Angelides (draining us of any moral, ethical or stylistic high ground we can claim over Gov. Arnold.---remember I am a Westly fan)

C) Reeps are able to capitalize on Umberg's half truths regarding his time as a Army prosecutor at Gitmo.

D) The economy continues improvement (ok, you may say 'what improvement', but as much as I hate to admit it the facts are facts)

E) Either Tran or Daucher are able to attract a certain amount of independent or Democrat voters based on gender/ethnicity.

If any of the above even partially occurs, Tom Umberg will be hip deep in a serious challenge. Democrats can't get complacent here.XOX